The most popular national energy administration do

2022-07-28
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The National Energy Administration: this year, the goal of photovoltaic power generation doubled to 10million kW. The official of the National Energy Administration recently announced that the 2013 national energy work conference held on January 7 proposed to vigorously develop unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas this year, and to vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic power generation. The annual goal of photovoltaic power generation is 10million kW, which is 2.5 times the new installed capacity in 2012

for the photovoltaic industry with unfavorable export and excess capacity, it is just a measure to save the market. Zhoudadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said frankly in an interview with Nandu that the goal is a huge challenge, and he doubted the practice of shouting slogans and setting goals. Linboqiang [] director of China energy economy research center of Xiamen University also believes that this goal will test the strength and speed of government subsidies. In addition, as China's photovoltaic industry has a production capacity of 40million kW, even if the goal is achieved, there is still 30million kW of production capacity to find a way out, and it is expected that a number of them will be eliminated

as for shale gas, since it was just launched last year, the respondents all believe that large-scale exploitation still needs time. In addition to the terminal subsidies that have been introduced, the natural gas price reform and management system need to keep up

The 2013 national energy work conference held on January 7 proposed that the national energy system will focus on eight aspects of work this year. The first safety device proposed to vigorously develop unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale gas and coalbed methane

China's shale gas development started last year, and two rounds of bidding have been carried out. Statistics show that the shale gas production in the United States has reached 130billion cubic meters, accounting for more than 8% of the total natural gas. The shale gas resources in China's major basins and regions are about 15 trillion -30 trillion cubic meters, which is similar to that in the United States 3trillion cubic meters is roughly the same, and the prospect is broad

however, linboqiang, director of the China energy economy research center of Xiamen University, told Nandu that up to now, shale gas is also a quite cutting-edge mineral in the world. In addition to China, only the United States and Canada exploit in the world. At present, commercial exploitation in Canada is still in its infancy. However, China has not started mining from the initial operation since it was started last year

according to the bidding results, the central coal and power enterprises, local energy groups and shale gas platform companies are in the majority, and the private enterprises are relatively few. Yanbeina, an analyst at UBS Securities, reminded that if most local energy groups and central enterprises finally obtain the development right, even if their investment commitments are not implemented, they may not be punished, thus delaying the development process. This is also a historical lesson from the past CBM development

what to do? In terms of policy, terminal subsidies were introduced during the two rounds of bidding last year, and private and foreign-funded enterprises were allowed to participate in the development. Linboqiang predicted that more support measures will be introduced this year. The key is to make the mining profitable, and the investment in technology and equipment will keep up. It is expected that there will be new bidding this year, and the natural gas price reform will also be promoted. Lin Boqiang analyzed that although PetroChina and SINOPEC are the main monopolies at present, it is difficult to achieve non discrimination in pipelines without institutional reform. He stressed that private enterprises, other state-owned enterprises and foreign capital should be involved in shale gas development. Diversification is also the intention of the central government. Only in this way can progress be accelerated

shale gas development is not simple. The exploration of geological conditions, how to master and introduce technologies, and how to organize projects must be carefully addressed. In an interview with Nandu, zhoudadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believed that the basic policies to encourage shale gas development have been established, and the next step should be to introduce measures to solve problems

in terms of exploitation volume, China's 12th Five year plan proposes that the exploitation volume of shale gas should reach 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2015. It should be no problem to achieve this goal. According to Lin Boqiang's analysis, it is expected that mining will be carried out in the next two years, but it will still take time to catch up with the United States. It took 10 years for the United States. Even if China was a little faster, it would take fiveorsix years when the sample was broken (stop applying tension)

it may be difficult to achieve an annual increase of 10million kilowatts of PV installed capacity.

apart from shale gas, the PV installed capacity target proposed at this year's energy work conference is eye-catching. The National Energy Administration announced that it would vigorously develop distributed photovoltaic power generation this year, proposing to increase the annual installed capacity of hydropower by 21million kW, wind power by 18million kW and photovoltaic power by 10million kW

it is worth noting that in 2011, the amount of social responsibility and value concept of "China's photovoltaic installed capacity and Guoyong" reached 3million kW. In 2012, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased to 7million kW. In 2013, a new 10million kW of installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was proposed, which is 2.5 times the new installed capacity in 2012

it will be very tiring and difficult to achieve this goal. Zhoudadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said frankly in an interview with Nandu that the goal is a huge challenge, and he doubted the practice of shouting slogans and setting goals. According to his analysis, the newly installed capacity is 10million kW. If a centralized photovoltaic power station is built, hundreds or even thousands of power plants need to be built; If it is distributed photovoltaic power generation, more power plants should be built

it was only 4million last year, and 10million kW will be added this year, which is really difficult. Linboqiang told Nandu that this will test the strength and speed of government subsidies. Subsidies can only be realized by finance or by increasing the price of electricity. He analyzed that at present, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is still higher than that of hydropower, thermal power and nuclear power. The development of photovoltaic industry in all countries in the world, including China, depends on government subsidies

two thirds of PV capacity is still surplus

an obvious reason for such strong support for the PV industry is that the export of China's PV industry is being besieged and blocked. Therefore, the industry regards this year's installation target as a move to save the market. Linboqiang analyzed that in the long run, solar energy will play an important role in the development of clean energy in the future, and the photovoltaic industry is still a rising industry. In terms of scale, China's photovoltaic industry has already ranked first in the world. The government does not want to lose this scale advantage, but only to solve the problem of disorderly development in the early stage. Linboqiang predicted that in addition to domestic demand to supplement external demand, the government is expected to introduce more supporting policies, such as advocating building energy conservation

in spite of this, the photovoltaic industry will still be toppled. According to linboqiang's analysis, at present, China's photovoltaic industry has a capacity of 40million kilowatts, which means that even if the industry stops expanding and all 10million kilowatts are launched this year, 30million kilowatts of capacity needs to find their own way out, which is bound to eliminate a batch; And the profits of surviving enterprises will be very thin

the PV industry is inherently overcapacity, and even if it is rescued, two-thirds of it cannot be used, not to mention blind expansion. Zhou Dadi reminded that there were problems in whether the technical services and products were in the right way after the industry was mainly engaged in export and now changed to domestic demand. He believes that mergers and acquisitions are conducive to the development of the whole industry

if this year's goal is achieved, it means that China is only one step away from achieving the goal of making the national installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reach 21million kW by 2015. Mengxiangan, vice president of China Renewable Energy Society, once said that senior government officials are considering raising China's 2015 installed PV capacity target to 40million kW to support domestic solar energy enterprises

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